Updated 2009 Hurricane Forecast

Information obtained through May 2009 indicates that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly less active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2009 will have about 5 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 11 named storms (average is 9.6), 50 named storm days (average is 49.1), 20 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 4 major hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be slightly below the long-period average. We have decreased our seasonal forecast from early April (information provided by Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William M. Gray).

Here is a list of reasons for a less than active hurricane season. All inhibit the development of hurricanes. 1). More vertical wind shear due to weak El Nino conditions. 2). Cooler sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic. 3) Stronger trade winds due to a very strong Azores High.

Hurricane Preparedness Week May 24-30th, 2009

With the approach of the 2009 hurricane season, the week of May 24th through 30th has been designated as Hurricane Preparedness Week in Lousiana Now is the time for all residents of southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi to begin reviewing and updating their hurricane preparedness plans. History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your areas vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the chance of being in harm's way if a hurricane threatens our area this year.
The official start of the hurricane season is June 1st, and it lasts through the end of of November. Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi are extremely vulnerable to the destructive winds and storm surge associated with hurricanes. In addition, many residents of southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi are still recovering from the damaging affects of Hurricanes Katrina, Gustav, and Ike. A few residents may still be living in structures vulnerable to tropical storm and hurricane force winds.
Area residents, especially those in coastal locations, weakened structures, or mobile homes and travel trailers vulnerable to wind, should review actions they would take if a tropical storm or hurricane threatened the region.
If you live in a vulnerable coastal location, you will likely be requested to evacuate if a hurricane threatens. Also, if you live in a travel trailer or mobile home, you will likely be requested to evacuate for tropical storms and hurricanes.
Now is the time to learn what evacuation routes you would use, the location you would go, and what you would bring with you if you evacuated. If you live in a safe location away from storm surge flooding and decide to stay, you should have provisions of food and water to last from several days to a week or more without normal service.
A variety of web sites are listed below that can assist you in your preparedness plans for the 2009 season.

Hurricane Preparedness Week Information (National Hurricane Center)

American Red Cross

FEMA Hurricane Preparedness Page

Louisiana Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness

Mississippi Emergency Management Agency

Louisiana "Get A Gameplan" Website for Hurricane Preparedness

Louisiana Emergency Web Site

Evacuation Route Maps and Information from the Louisiana State Police

Evacuation Route Maps and Information from the Mississippi Department of Transportation

Severe Threat Easter Sunday

FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S....
 
  ...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...
 
  POWERFUL SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
  INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON EASTER SUNDAY AS STRONGEST
  FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE SERN-ERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE...H5
  FLOW OF 80-90KT....FROM EAST TX INTO NWRN MS.
  ADDITIONALLY...STRONGLY DIFFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
  THE SCNTRL U.S. IN CONJUNCTION WITH RAPIDLY MODIFYING BOUNDARY
  LAYER.
 
  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STRONG WARM ADVECTION...ALONG
  WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER VORT...WILL ENCOURAGE A BROAD ZONE OF
  WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE
  PERIOD...MUCH OF IT ELEVATED IN NATURE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
  PROPAGATE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND
  EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION BY 12Z MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE
  ASCENT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.
 
  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SHEAR PROFILES WILL
  BE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION...CLEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF
  ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WHERE INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT.  ALTHOUGH
  BUOYANCY WILL BE AT A MINIMUM EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF
  CNTRL TX...NWD TO THE RED RIVER.  WITH TIME A NARROW AXIS OF
  INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
  WARM FRONT THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE BEYOND THE RED RIVER/ARKLATEX
  DUE TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION.  MODELS INSIST PRIMARY
  SFC LOW WILL LAG SOMEWHAT OVER NCNTRL TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
  HOURS.  THIS MAY ALLOW SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY TO BE GENERATED
  AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN TX IN THE WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL
  PRECIPITATION.  IF MARITIME AIRMASS IS ABLE TO WARM SUFFICIENTLY
  THEN A POTENTIALLY MORE VOLATILE SCENARIO MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN TX
  INTO LA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
  DEVELOPMENT.  AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK DUE TO THE
  UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK
  MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TORNADOES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

Severe Weather Possible Easter Sunday

Paste the following link in your browser to read more about the possibility of strong to severe storms on Easter Sunday in south Louisiana.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

2009 Revised Hurricane Forecast

Hurricane forecasters at Colorado
State University have scaled back their prediction for the Atlantic
and are now calling for an average season with 12 named storms,
including six hurricanes, two of them major.
In December, researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach
predicted an above-average season with 14 named storms with seven
hurricanes - three major.
Gray said Tuesday the forecast was dialed down because of
improved chances of El Nino conditions, which suppress hurricane
formation.
This is Gray's 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His
predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others,
but many say long-range forecasts have little practical value
beyond focusing public attention on the dangers.
The season runs June 1-Nov. 30.

Possible Record Breaking Night

Today, you are probably checking your calender to make sure that it is still spring. We are going to look at unseasonably cool temperatures for the next two days. Our average high for early spring should be near 73° and overnight lows near 53°. However, our high today will be in the lower 60s with overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s. The expected overnight low for Baton Rouge tonight is 35°. If the wind relaxes this evening, we could definitely break the old record of 36° set way back in 1996. Temperatures will be back to normal by Wednesday, but we definitely need to bundle up for the next few days. Make sure you cover those newly planted spring plants to prevent damage.

Flash Flood Warnings as of Tuesday Afternoon

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lix&wwa=flood%20warning