Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Flash Flood Warnings as of Tuesday Afternoon
Monday, March 30, 2009
Ascension Parish Tornado
...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN ASCENSION PARISH...
TIME OF EVENT: 1112 PM 3/27/09
BEGINNING POINT: ST. AMANT
ENDING POINT: ST. AMANT
RATING: EF1 MAXIMUM WINDS 100-110 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 1.75 MILES
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 1
SUMMARY: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY CONFIRMED TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN THE ST AMANT COMMUNITY. ONE HOUSE MOVED OFF FOUNDATION AND ROOF BLOWN OFF. LARGE METAL COMMERCIAL BUILDING HEAVILY DAMAGED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED TOTAL OF 1 STRUCTURE DESTROYED...10 STRUCTURES SEVERE DAMAGE...20 MODERATE DAMAGE.
Flood Warnings
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
910 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...
THE AMITE RIVER AT DENHAM SPRINGS AFFECTING EAST BATON ROUGE AND
LIVINGSTON PARISHES
THE AMITE RIVER AT BAYOU MANCHAC POINT AFFECTING EAST BATON ROUGE
PARISH
FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.
DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE AMITE RIVER AT DENHAM SPRINGS.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 32.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE FLOOD STAGE IS 29.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 32.5
FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 30.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL BEGIN IN THE WESTERNMOST PARTS
OF DENHAM SPRINGS. RIVER ROAD AT THE FOOT OF BENTON LANE WILL FLOOD.
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE AMITE RIVER AT BAYOU MANCHAC POINT.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6:52 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.5 FEET
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...KENDALWOOD ROAD AND ADJACENT PROPERTY WILL
BE INUNDATED. BACKWATER MAY FLOOD BAYOU FOUNTAIN AND FLOOD SOME
HOMES ON BURBANK DRIVE. MOST SECONDARY ROADS WILL BE MODERATELY
FLOODED. AMITE RIVER ROAD AND HORSESHOE DRIVE WILL BE IMPASSABLE. A
FEW HOMES ON HORSESHOE DRIVE WILL FLOOD.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Severe Weather Survey
Severe Weather Affects Southeast Louisiana and Coastal Mississippi
National Weather Service survey teams assessed the damage from a round of severe storms during the early morning hours on March 26, 2009. The following are the results from the surveys across Southeast Louisiana and Coastal Mississippi. Pictures and Track Maps will be updated in the coming days.
...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN TANGIPAHOA PARISH...
TIME OF EVENT: 158 AM THROUGH 203 AM 3/26/09
BEGINNING POINT: 2 MILES E INDEPENDENCE
ENDING POINT: 2.75 MILES ENE INDEPENDENCE
RATING: EF1 MAXIMUM WINDS 110 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 0.75 MILES
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 1
SUMMARY: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY CONFIRMED 7 HOMES WERE DAMAGED AND 1 MOBILE HOME WAS DESTROYED. 1 TRAILER HEAVILY DAMAGED. IN ADDITION TO THE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. MOST OF THE DAMAGE WAS CONTAINED IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 40 AND SCHOOL ROAD.
...EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN ST TAMMANY PARISH...
TIME OF EVENT: 343 AM THROUGH 343 AM 3/26/09
BEGINNING POINT: 2 MILES SSE SLIDELL
ENDING POINT: 2 MILES SSE SLIDELL
RATING: EF0 MAXIMUM WINDS 65 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 250 YARDS
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 25 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
SUMMARY: VERY WEAK TORNADO MOVED THROUGH THE SPRINGHILL SUBDIVISION WITH ONLY MINOR TREE DAMAGE AND YARD ITEMS BLOWN AROUND. THE DAMAGE OCCURRED ON ADMIRAL NELSON ROAD.
...EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN JACKSON COUNTY...
TIME OF EVENT: 533 AM THROUGH 534 AM 3/26/09
BEGINNING POINT: PASCAGOULA
ENDING POINT: PASCAGOULA
RATING: EF0 MAXIMUM WINDS 75 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 250 YARDS
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
SUMMARY: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY CONFIRMED THAT TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE STORM GOT BACK ON LAND. IT TRAVELED TO THE EAST CAUSING THE MOST DAMAGE AROUND TUCKER AND 8TH STREET AT PASCAGOULA HIGH SCHOOL. THE SCORE BOARD ON THE FOOTBALL FIELD WAS BLOWN DOWN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS FENCES WITH DEBRIS SCATTERED ACROSS THE SCHOOL. THE TORNADO MOVED TOWARD PAUL HARVEY ROAD AND TAYLOR STREET CAUSING LIGHT DAMAGE TO TRAFFIC LIGHTS...MINOR ROOF DAMAGE AND BRINGING DOWN SEVERAL TREES. ALSO A TRAMPOLINE WAS BLOWN ONTO A VAN.
...SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE IN THE BATON ROUGE METRO...
TIME OF EVENT: 105 AM THROUGH 117 AM 3/26/09
MAXIMUM WINDS: 80 MPH
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
SUMMARY: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY CONFIRMED THAT A BOW ECHO DEVELOPED AS THE SQUALL LINE APPROACHED EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH. IT CROSSED THE RIVER AROUND 105AM CST AND PROCEEDED THROUGH THE PARISH INTO LIVINGSTON PARISH. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE CITY WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE ACROSS THE LSU CAMPUS EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHDOWNS AND TOWARDS THE INTERSECTION OF AIRLINE AND OLD HAMMOND HIGHWAYS. ALONG WITH TREES AND POWER POLES SCATTERED COMMERCIAL SIGNS ALONG PERKINS ROAD WERE BLOWN DOWN. SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO THE LSU FOOTBALL INDOOR PRACTICE FACILITY.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Heavy Rain and Strong Storms this Week
Our weather pattern is setting up to be one of rounds of heavy rain and some threat for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Off and on rain will continue through early Saturday morning with as much as 3-5 inches possible by then (see forecast rain totals map).
Also the Storm Prediction Center has most of south Louisiana under a slight risk of storms the next day or so. This will be likely again in Friday afternoon and night. See posted outlooks.
For more information and to read the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center, visit
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Friday, March 20, 2009
2009 Spring Outlook
Major Midwest Flooding Highlighted in U.S. Spring Outlook
March 19, 2009
Flooding in the upper Midwest, which could rival the high water levels experienced in 2006 and possibly 1997, and continued drought in the South and West are among the highlights in NOAA’s National Weather Service Spring Outlook issued today.
Flooding – Midwest on Watch
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
A deep snowpack and recent heavy rain have elevated the spring flood threat in parts of the Midwest:
- Water released by melting snowpack that is deeper than normal – while running off the already saturated and frozen ground – poses an imminent serious flood threat in the Red River Valley.
Forecasters say flooding will begin next week and that the Red River of the North in Fargo and Grand Forks, N.D., will ultimately reach major flood stage and has a strong likelihood of a crest measuring among the top five highest on record. Away from rivers, widespread over-land flooding is expected due to the flat terrain and frozen drainage networks in the Red River Basin. The threat in this area is so great that the National Weather Service created a new category – “High Risk” – to distinguish it from the existing “Above Average” category for flooding potential.
- Recent flooding caused by heavy rain from Illinois to Ohio has begun receding, but the now saturated ground is prone to additional flooding with renewed rainfall.
“We are looking at a situation with all the ingredients for near record flooding in the upper Midwest,” said Jack Hayes, director of the National Weather Service. “Sudden snowpack melts due to warm temperatures or a heavy rain could further complicate the flooding on the northern plains.” Supported by advanced water and weather science and early warnings from NOAA, local officials and emergency managers in the Red River Valley are taking action to prepare their communities, according to Hayes.
River levels – past, current and/or projected – at nearly 4,300 stations across the United States are available through the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at weather.gov/water. The National Weather Service Web site has the latest flood advisories, watches and warnings with localized information.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
Temperature and Precipitation – A Waning La Niña
The spring (April through June) temperature and precipitation outlook issued today by the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service – indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures from Texas westward to the California deserts north to central Utah with cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Northwest, Hawaii and much of Alaska. Odds favor below-average precipitation across the northwestern U.S. and South Florida and favor above-average precipitation in Hawaii and northern Alaska.
Elsewhere across the country there are equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal temperatures and precipitation because there is no strong large-scale climate signal to guide long-range forecasts.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
“The current La Niña will likely have some effect on this spring as it continues to weaken. Although La Niña tends to have a smaller influence on U.S. weather during the warmer months, lingering effects are not uncommon in spring,” said Ed O’Lenic, long-range forecaster with the Climate Prediction Center. La Niña – associated with cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean – can alter the typical temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States.
Drought’s Grip Loosening in South, West, but Intensifying in Florida
Texas remains in the bulls-eye of the most widespread and intense drought, followed by California, the Southeast and Wisconsin, but the recent record rain brought much-needed moisture to the Lone Star state, according to recent updates to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. Storms in February and early March across northern California provided some relief to the drought, but storage in major reservoirs is much below average and spring runoff is forecast to be below average with less than a month left in the wet season.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
The Climate Prediction Center’s newly updated Seasonal Drought Outlook highlights these areas of drought as generally persisting through June with limited areas of improvement. Though with continued dryness, drought may develop from northern Virginia to New Jersey.
Underscoring the severity of the Texas drought, the state just emerged from its driest winter since records began in 1895. Even with the recent rain, cumulative rainfall during the past six months remains as much as a foot below normal in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Therefore, severe drought has not ended and is expected to linger well into spring. Severe drought has been increasing in Florida, where some cities had their driest winter on record, and where an increasing risk of wildfires has developed. The Florida drought is likely to persist and intensify until the thunderstorm season gets underway in late May and June.
Staying Safe during Tornado Season
Spring is also the season for tornadoes as April, May and June are, on average, the busiest months for twisters. Though the severity of this year’s tornado season is influenced by short-term weather patterns that are only predictable out to a week in the future, it is imperative to know when the atmosphere is ripe for severe thunderstorms to produce tornadoes.
“If you don’t already have a NOAA Weather Radio, get one now,” added Hayes. “This is a fast and reliable way to get life-saving warnings from the National Weather Service.”
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.Monday, March 16, 2009
Flood Safety Awareness Week
http://www.weather.gov/floodsafety/
Friday, March 13, 2009
Wet Weather Pattern for the Weekend
It looks like the forecast for a wet weekend is going to pan out for our area. Despite that being a bummer for St. Patrick's Day parade plans on Saturday morning in Baton Rouge and New Orleans, we actually need the rainfall. Our region is in a seven inch plus deficit in just 2009 alone. The risk of flooding is little to none as the ground is so dry and should soak up the slow and steady rainfall we'll see off and on through Monday morning. High pressure will build in and allow for sunshine to return on Tuesday with temperatures warming back into the middle 70s. Have a great weekend, albeit a wet one!
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Lower Mississippi Valley in for a Wet Weekend
You are looking at a welcomed change in our weather pattern for the next four days. A strong cold front will move south and stall along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday night and hang out for the next several days. Upper level lift will be significant enough to provide for scattered showers through Friday. A surface low pressure system will develop on Saturday morning in the western Gulf of Mexico and move northeast along the front through Saturday night and into Sunday. Rain totals could approach two to three inches in parts of south Louisiana with higher totals across the northern part of the state. It looks like drier air will filter in on Monday and bring the wet weather to an end. As we've been mentioning, our rain deficit for 2009 is more than seven inches in Baton Rouge. This will at least put a dent in the ongoing moderate drought for south Louisiana.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Southern Lousiana Under Moderate Drought
That's according to Mark Svoboda, a climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center. Svoboda says almost all of Louisiana is abnormally dry for this time of year, but the southern region is experiencing a moderate drought.
Signs of drought include below normal precipitation and very dry soil and vegetation conditions that can result in forest fires.
Mike Efferson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Slidell, said rainfall levels in the state are about two inches below normal. He said Louisiana usually gets about 12.74 inches of rain from January to this time of year but has only gotten 10.79 inches (Information provided by Associated Press).
Friday, March 6, 2009
Why so warm and beautiful for winter?
A lot of variables have to come together to get the weather scenario we saw today and are forecasting for the weekend. In most cases, warm winds out of the south that swoop off the Gulf of Mexico tend to build up low-level moisture over Southern Louisiana. With daytime heating and the proper force or lift provided by the upper levels of the atmosphere, we get isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. However, over that last couple of days everything has fallen into place. First, we have a surface area of high pressure (the bottom layer of the cake) situated right over the Atlantic Coast that is bringing in warm, tropical air from the Caribbean and is transplanting that warm air over Louisiana. This is the reason for the unseasonably warm temperatures, but it does not provide us an answer to the dry conditions. To make the rain free weather, the jetstream (the top layer of our cake) had to cooperate and lucky for us it did. Right now, the jetstream is ridging well to north of Louisiana instead of directly over us. This ridging has produced an upper-level region of high pressure. Upper-level high pressure creates sinking air. Sinking air, in most cases, is stable. What does this mean? A stable atmosphere usually prevents rain and keeps us dry. So, when you join the two layers together, you get a weather pattern that is quite pleasant for this time of the year. We are seeing extremely warm temperatures without having to worry about our activities being rained out. Enjoy! We all know this gorgeous weather won't last long.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
It's Allergy Season Folks!
If you are a sufferer of allergies, then this upcoming weekend is not going to welcome you well. You may want to go to Walgreen's and stock up on some additional allergy medicine. It really is a little early to be receiving some of those mid-spring sinus and coughing symptoms. Climate and pollen forecasts expect levels for this spring season to heightened due to the dry conditions experienced normally in a La Nina year. The recent spell of warm and extremely dry weather along the Gulf Coast has confused the region’s plant population to start pollinating early; therefore, triggering unseasonably high pollen counts for this time of the year. Predominant pollen species in bloom are cedar, juniper, and oak; however, hay fever is also at an unusual high due to ragweed producing double and triple the amount of pollen grains.So even though the weather is going to be above average and exceptional this weekend, you may want to bring that box of Kleenex for those sniffles. Possible rain on Monday and Tuesday of next week should bring the extremely high levels back to normal.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Dry & warm conditions expected this spring for Louisiana due to La Nina
La Nina conditions have been present since late December. CPC officials say it is too early to say exactly how strong the event will be and precisely how long it will last. However, for the next few months La Nina is expected to bring milder and drier than average conditions to the southeastern and southwestern states. Louisiana would fall in this category; therefore, expect a dry and very warm spring very similar to last year as we also experienced La Nina conditions in 2008. It is also expected to bring wetter-than-average conditions to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, plus cooler than average temperatures to the Pacific Northwest.
Monday, March 2, 2009
March is in like a Lion
Although we are not setting any new records, March has started out very much on the cold side. We were definitely bit by the lion this morning and yesterday morning. Yesterday involved strong winds with the unusual low temperatures. We saw wind chills (feel like temperatures) nearly 10° below the actual air temperature. It was definitely a cold day for a crawfish boil. Today, at least, the winds will finally relax. Tomorrow, expect even lower temperatures. During the overnight hours, expect clears and a little radiational cooling (more heat will be released from the ground into space than absorbed at the surface). We could expect possibly a period of 2-5 hours of temperatures below freezing. A light freeze watch is in effect for tomorrow morning until 8 a.m. At this time of the year, we should be ramping up our temperatures and should see average daytime highs in the upper 60s. Unofficially, March is considered the first month of spring. It definitely doesn't feel like spring here in Southern Louisiana. It is always tough to get a little taste of some warm weather and then turn 180° and plummet back into the cold. Good news...warmer temperatures are on tap for the end of the week.